Clean and renewable energies offer a fast track to net zero as a replacement for traditional centralised generation and the electrification of fossil fuel-based sectors.
Unlike traditional generation which is large-scale, centralised, and polluting, renewable energies open the way for a new paradigm with the potential for rapid and widespread deployment of diverse clean technologies at scales from the household all the way up to the utility level.
Therefore, a net zero world will need all the renewable generation facilities that can be deployed to achieve that target by 2050 so that the man-made effects of climate change are slowed sufficiently to limit the escalating global temperature.
To put this into perspective, the IEA found in its May 2021 net zero pathway study, that the estimated total electricity generation should increase over two-and-a-half times by 2050.
This is to serve a 2050 economy more than twice as big and a population with 2 billion more people but with an overall global energy demand around 8% smaller than today, resulting from a combination of more efficient use of energy, resource efficiency, and behavioural changes.
Energy demand challenges
The two factors of a growing population and growing economy present some specific energy challenges.
Much of the increasing population demand at a global level is occurring in cities as more and more people migrate to these, with crowding, limited space for new infrastructure, and pressures on the local grid.
The other major area of increasing population demand is in emerging economies where electrification is limited or non-existent with funding and remoteness challenges as energy is expanded to all.
Arguably more complex is the increased demand from across the economy. On the one hand, there is increased demand for new infrastructure such as communications networks and data centres as well as industrial production and other facilities and services to serve the increasing population.
But more significant is the large-scale electrification of sectors such as transport with the move to electric vehicles and the process electrification of the industry to decarbonise heating and machinery.
Alongside this and closely allied is the decarbonisation of energy as another notable growth area, of which a key component is a transition from gas to hydrogen and other biogases.
The renewable opportunity
Clean and renewable energies with zero emissions at end use are uniquely able to meet these challenges.
At the residential level solar photovoltaic (PV) solutions can be tailored for house size, roof shape, and orientation for example. The solar can be scaled for community and collective solutions all the way up to the utility level.
The technology can be tailored to the environment and terrain – solar to sunnier locations and wind to the windier ones for example and split into different sites in mountainous areas or other space-constrained locations.
Another benefit is that the technologies can be mixed and matched to take advantage of diurnal or other variations and for example, it is not uncommon for a location to have good solar potential during the day but good wind potential overnight.
Marine energies, when they reach technological and cost-effectiveness, could benefit islands and other coastal locations, while geothermal energy also holds considerable potential as new techniques are being developed for drilling ever deeper below the earth’s surface.
Last but not least these energies can be supplemented with energy storage in a microgrid in order to take advantage of excess generation and avoid curtailment by storing them for later use. Similarly, multiple storage technologies are available for different locations and use cases, with grid requirements on scales from seconds for local flexibility management up to weeks and months for seasonal support.
Market development
The availability of these technologies along with their ongoing innovation is one thing, but their full potential will be realised and accelerated only through regulation at national and/or regional levels, their economics in the market, and the decarbonisation of the wider utility infrastructure.
While climate targets are one aspect of the regulatory picture, others include the availability of demand response and flexibility mechanisms so that all technologies and parties are able to participate in the market and receive value for that participation.
From the utility perspective, digitalisation across the enterprise needs to go hand in hand with renewables deployment to maximise its impact and avoid or at least defer costly investment in substations and other infrastructure upgrades.
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Economies of scale have brought down the basic costs of renewable technologies and other distributed energy resources such as electric vehicles but their economics in the market depends on a range of other factors from taxes and incentives to socioeconomic and other conditions.
The implementation of new services and business models facilitated by renewable technologies for both residential and large customers, including flexibility and virtual power plants, also is important to utility adoption and their overall return on investment.
Looking towards 2050
The year 2050 is little more than a generation away, indicating the speed with which the demand will grow and the economy should transform and that regulation should drive.
To achieve the net zero goal by 2050, there is a need for widespread cooperation with plans to deliver this growth with a green energy supply encompassing not only generation but also microgrids, storage, green hydrogen, virtual power plants, and all the other elements for its delivery.
